November 28, 2023
Business

Even before the stock market, the arm wrestling between technology and recession

isabelby isabel

It is millimeter work before the stock market, the AEX indication is only +0.1%.

The better news is that chipper Micron (ASM’s EUV customer) raises the outlook (+3.0%), so does Renault and US banks are undergoing a stress test. The bad news is that the Fed continues to raise and the US economy is faltering; the number of bankruptcies is skyrocketing to real recession levels.

What about the Nasdaq 100? He continues to rise.

  • European futures, on the other hand, open just 0.1% lower
  • The American adds this percentage only
  • In Asia, Japan, Korea and Taiwan are almost stable and China is slightly lower. It’s Hong Kong again that soars, as the Hang Seng is down 1.4% and the Hang Seng Tech Index is down 1.6%
    Alibaba -2.4%
    Tencent -0.7%
    TSMC -0.2%
    Samsung +0.3%

We follow:

  • Volatility (CBOE VIX index) is -2.3% at 13.4 and BofA MOVEi index (bonds) is also -2.3% at 108.3
  • Dollar accumulates high of 0.2%, at 1.0895
  • Gold and oil were down 0.5% and cryptocurrencies were up a few tenths. Bitcoin is now at $30,174.29

Interest rates are doing something new, what can be said about the dullness?

While the US economy may or may not be in a recession and the Fed is still considering a two-quarter hike, the Nasdaq 100 technology index continues. Apple (+0.7%) is worth $2.98 billion after yesterday is the most impressive fact. And the fund also makes an expected profit of 29.5% – this is almost a record.

Do what you can’t resist, but AI fantasy and AI sales and profit are not the same thing. The AEX trades at 14.4 times expected earnings and the S&P 500 at 19.0 times.

Despite this, there is a green shot: Micron was +3.0% after the close.

This chart is from MarketWatch, it’s not without risk anyway… Is the Fed’s rising interest rate still on the sidelines? To quote:

The graph only shows bankruptcies of large companies with liabilities of more than $50 million. Its financial meltdown rate now rivals levels seen in the aftermath of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis.

“These data show the beginning of a bad debt cycle,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, in a follow-up email to MarketWatch.

“And Powell saying today that rates are going to stay higher for longer is making you wonder: where will these trends be in the coming quarters if the Fed doesn’t start cutting rates until 2024?”

It’s not listed, but if you want to buy the Nasdaq 100, ask yourself Clint Eastwood’s legendary rhetorical question: You feel lucky today, punk? 🙂

Tonight, the Dow Jones Nike bottom still has Q1s. This was severely punished in corona times, it can leak above the water and… yes, here we go again, it’s certainly not a bargain anymore.

Today’s agenda item is the German June inflation. Recession, ECB and the rest, you know the story.

A little tidying up: Due to our investor day, there will be no morning roll call tomorrow. If you have any pressing questions for the CEOs of Alfen, Fastned, Heijmans and Pharming, who are our guests, we are happy to read them in the comments. Have fun tomorrow if you go.

Oh yes, today is the undersigned’s birthday! Preferably already 55 years old and do me a favor, put that AEX higher today, as well as ASML, ASR, ING, Shell, Aalberts and Just Eat Takeaway. Thanks in advance.

News, advice, shorts and agenda

The most important news from ABM Financial since yesterday’s close in Amsterdam.

  • 08:10 Citi Research puts neutral rating on Besi
  • 08:01 Start expected AEX plan
  • 07:47 Consumer confidence in Japan rises slightly
  • 07:37 Successful stress test of US banks
  • 07:34 Jefferies lowers DSM Firmenich price target to €137
  • 07:28 Renault raises outlook for fiscal 2023
  • 07:21 Berenberg lowers DSM Firmenich price target to €120
  • 07:08 Japanese retail sales rise sharply
  • 07:04 European stock markets expected to open steady
  • 07:00 Confidence in Dutch business falls
  • 06:54 Stock market agenda: macroeconomic
  • 06:53 Exhibition agenda: Dutch companies
  • 06:53 Stock market agenda: foreign funds
  • 28 Jun Micron Technology exceeds expectations
  • Jun 28 Stock Market Update: AEX on Wall Street
  • June 28 Wall Street closes lower
  • June 28 Oil price closes higher
  • June 28 Wall Street heads for a bearish close
  • June 28 European stocks close higher

The AFM reports these shorts:

The agenda is still quite full, at 09:00 there is still Spanish inflation for June (1.5% HICP YoY expected) and the latest revised US Q1 GDP (1.4% QoQ):

00:00 ABN AMRO – Bava
00:00 Ease2pay – Annual numbers
00:00 Sligro – Bava

13:00 Acuity Brands – US Third Quarter Results
22:00 Nike – US fourth quarter numbers

00:50 Retail Sales – May (Japan)
06:30 Producer Confidence – June (NL)
11:00 Consumer Confidence and Economic Sentiment – End of June (EUR)
14:00 Inflation – June vlpg (Germany)
2:30 pm Support Requests – Weekly (US)
14:30 Economic Growth – Late First Quarter (WE)
4:00 PM Upcoming Home Sales – May (US)
00:00 Riksbank – Interest rate decision (Sweden)

and then this

S&P 500 -0.03% and Nasdaq 100 +0.1%, or you probably haven’t lost any sleep over it:

In the aftermarket: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Bank of America all rose 1-2% in the aftermarket in the Fed’s latest stress test. Only Citigroup lost 0.2%.

Baidu fell -2.7% in Hong Kong after -1.5% in New York yesterday:

Uh-oh:

Other:

Also something with 2%:

Have fun and good luck today.

isabel

View all posts by isabel →

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